Baby boom? Baby doom

2024 statistics show the fertility rate in England and Wales has fallen to its lowest recorded rate.

Picture: Unsplash. Credit: Kelly Sikkem

Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures have shown Britain's birth rates decline to the lowest levels since 1977. In 2023 only 591, 072 babies were born which is a 14,000 decline from 2022, making 2023 the lowest year for total fertility rate recorded since 1938. (ONS, 2023)

There are many reasons why birth rates are declining in the UK and other countries. A range of social, economic, political, environmental and personal reasons will influence people’s decision whether to have children.

Created with Excel. Data from Office for National Statistics, 2023.

Climate fears

The global climate crisis continues to impact our environment, creating instability and uncertainty. A survey carried out by The Guardian found that one in five female climate scientists say they will have “no children or fewer children because of the crisis” (Carrington, 2024). These are a sample of educated women who understand the declining state of the environment. Research from Nottingham University in 2022 found that “48% of Brits agreed anxiety about climate change had to some extent made them think they should not have, or now regretted having, children.” (Singh Khadka, 2024)

Figure 1, Made using Excel, 2024, data from a Nottingham University survey of over 500 adults in each country.

Cost of living crisis

The state of the economy has a huge influence. Raising a child is expensive and this is even more prevalent in the UK’s cost of living crisis. Speaking to Sky News, Emily-Kate Day has a daughter with her husband, and although both working a full-time job, they cannot afford another child.

"It's heart-wrenching really," she says, "because we always wanted a big family and we made the decision last year perhaps not to try for another one because of financial reasons.

"I'd love to have a sibling for Violet, she is desperate for a sibling as well, but financially at the moment with nursery fees it's impossible."

This is a statement of finality, it is financially ‘impossible’ for the couple despite how much they want to.

Couples today want to feel secure in housing and finances, to be able to provide adequately. There are strong fears about children being entirely unaffordable. The rising cost of living means childcare and housing expenses can’t be ignored, it is a financially difficult climate, and the rate of inflation continues to increase.

Vanessa, a 35-year-old project manager from Brighton told The Guardian having children has become an “unaffordable luxury for many of her generation”. The climate crisis, “crumbling public services and the plummeting mental health of young people. Put these into the mix and you have a perfect storm for declining birthrates.”

A survey from the Pew Research Centre found that with a sample of adults under 50 who say they’re not likely to have children, 36% say their biggest reason is that they can’t afford them. (Pew Research Centre, 2024)

The effects of extremely high housing costs being can be seen through the Centre for Progressive Policy (CPP) research which found the Lambeth borough in London had some of the biggest falls in birth rates in Britain due to housing costs which are very high.

“Where housing cost increases have been the sharpest, birth rate falls have been the highest,” says the CPPs CEO Ben Franklin (2024)

Partnership difficulties

The dating scene is ever-evolving, but this may be making finding a partner more difficult. It seems less normal to meet a partner in person, making dating apps more prevalent. However, perhaps these apps are creating a culture of dating that is superficial and never-ending. Fewer women are finding a suitable partner to start a family with, dating culture could be to blame. 34-year-old Rose who lives in London and works in PR told The Guardian

“The thing that has held me back has been not finding the right partner. Dating app culture has made people feel there are endless options.”

Women are now more liberated than before, there is a freedom and changing attitudes towards making a family. Women may choose to delay having children to work on their careers and themselves. Yet within relationships, equality is still a problem. Pregnant women have to give up their jobs while the men do not. 28-year-old Sarah who works in the public sector in York expressed her worry to The Guardian about going back to unequal gender roles:

“I’m particularly concerned about the lack of support for fathers taking an equal role in childcare. Couples who had very equal relationships before children find that, once babies arrive, they slip into more stereotypical gender roles.”

Perhaps it is all these factors that have caused birth rates to fall, each influencing potential parents and presenting a situation that is too difficult to work through. Neuroscientists Michael Platt and Peter Sterling described this in their 2024 paper:

“Inequality and social isolation have led to an ‘Epidemic of despair.’” (Platt, Sterling, 2024) Which is resulting in falling birthrates not just in the UK but worldwide.

This has serious implications for the UK’s future economy, as low birth rates mean eventually there will be more pensioners than people of working age. This will in time create a top-heavy economy which would put a strain on the country’s finances. Additionally, an older population will increase pressure on healthcare and social services which, in the UK, are already overburdened. Even further, fewer working people can create labour shortages which is dire for the economy which relies heavily on labour.

What can be done?

To counter these falling birthrates, first the government must tackle the extreme costs of raising a child. Housing costs and childcare need to be subsidised so having children is accessible to more people. Ultimately, our society needs to more successfully support those who are less fortunate, in all aspects of life. The cost-of-living crisis has affected people’s finances and therefore opportunities which has now affected fertility rates. Until this situation is improved, birth rates will continue to fall.