Is all hope lost for those who took the university route to career success?
Media headlines say graduates are struggling. Government data says not really. The truth lies somewhere in between.
Deavion Copeman graduated in 2023, expecting her degree to open doors into entry-level creative and art roles.
“I was always told having a degree, no matter what it was, was a good way to get into a graduate program, even if it didn’t explicitly relate to the degree you did”.
But with the realities of the current UK labour market: rapidly evolving industries; the rollout of AI and global uncertainty, mean that many in their early careers are feeling the pressure.
Graduate outcomes data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) provides insight into graduate employment 15 months after graduation.
The most recent report, published in July this year, provides data for the class of 2022/23.
55% of graduates are currently in full-time employment, according to the aggregated table below, while cohort-wide data suggests the true figure is closer to 59%.
This difference reflects how aggregation, weighting and methodology can affect reported outcomes, highlighting the need to examine statistics with caution.
These figures show a decrease from the previous year, when they peaked at 61%. This decrease is the largest visualised in graduate outcomes in the last five years, but is not lower than the pre-pandemic rates of 56%.
This trend is mirrored in unemployment, which is rising again after the low for 2021/22 graduates. 6% of respondents who graduated in 2022/23 are currently unemployed, but the figure has not yet risen to the 2018/19 rate of 7%.
These shifts in graduate outcomes over the previous five years are important, yet slight. Signifying a graduate labour market that’s stagnant, not collapsing, as is often illustrated in headlines or social media algorithms.
Can we trust the data?
Pete Smillie, lead careers consultant at Oxford Brookes University, says the data “has some value, but gives limited insight.” All graduates are asked to complete this optional survey, and as with all self-report surveys, there are limitations.
“The national response rate has steadily dwindled over the last few years - 48% of 2018-19 graduates responded, but this has fallen to only 35% of 2022-23 graduates responding.”
“It is only a snapshot in one point in time; some graduates take a little longer to get into fulfilling work or want to gain life experiences, such as travel, before settling into a career.”
The data is undescriptive. The lived experiences of graduates are unique and nuanced, something not measured in the survey. Leaving valuable questions unanswered and us ill-informed of simple considerations. Like, are those working graduates in a role that’s related to their degree or career aspirations?
When I asked Deavion about this, she told me that her current part-time job doesn’t relate to her field of interest or degree “I often feel frustrated about that.”
Paired with the continually lower response rates, the survey represents less than half of graduates. When asked if she’d participated in any surveys, Deavion said, “No, due to my post-uni embarrassment that I wasn’t progressing enough compared to others…I’d be more likely to now as I’ve settled into my situation more”.
Pete Smillie points out that there’s potential for improvements, “in the future, the government may instead use something called Longitudinal Education Outcomes data…Instead of a survey, the government can use data from HMRC… and DWP…This should hopefully tell us all much more about how students progress after 1, 3, and up to 10 years after graduation.”
But for now, we don’t have the full picture.
Smillie recommends exploring the Prospects Luminate ‘What Do Graduates Do?’ report. It’s broken down by degree, so “you can check out typical roles gained for your subject.”
What about the wider UK Labour Market?
The Labour Force Survey, published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), releases insights into the UK’s working-age population. Reporting on their economic activity and inactivity. It’s updated on a rolling monthly basis and organises the data quarterly.
75% of the working-age population aged 16-64 were employed as of the start of 2025. 0.9% lower than the 2019 figures.
Demonstrating that employment rates have remained steady, never dropping below 74.4% in the previous five years.
While not concrete, the fluctuations could be attributed to the pandemic, the disruptions of multiple lockdowns and Furlough, as well as slowed economic growth and rising inflation.
5.2% of the working-age population is currently unemployed, which is lower than the current graduate unemployment rate. The 2022 drop most likely followed a surge of post-pandemic hiring, but overall unemployment has increased by 1.3% since 2019.
These figures reflect the same conclusions: stagnant employment and slowly rising unemployment.
But, as Pete Smillie explains, “peaks and troughs are normal, and Labour Market expert Charlie Ball has noted that this was similar to the levels of employment before the pandemic hit.” Reminding us that changes do not necessarily indicate long-term decline.
Why do things feel harder for graduates?
Percentages in the ONS’ Labour Force Survey are calculated using the number of people in our working-age population.
43.3 million people are currently aged 16-64 in the UK. 1.8 million extra people are now in this category since 2019. Suggesting that, despite steady employment rates, there are now more applicants to compete with.
“Everything I’ve applied for has mostly ended in being ghosted, or having an interview and then someone with years and years of experience being picked over me”
“Businesses don’t want to take on people in this economy; if they can’t guarantee they can do the job… they can’t afford to hire multiple people, so they’re hiring one person on a low wage to do three people’s jobs”, says Deavion.
The rates aren’t telling the full story. Considering population growth, risk aversion and fewer entry-level opportunities gives those statistics perspective. Explaining why competition currently feels brutal for graduates.
What now?
The changing nature of recruitment means building your employability is more important than ever. According to Smillie, “It is never too early to begin - even at the start of your studies.”
“Aim to get skill-building experiences alongside your studies…through a wide range of things such as part-time work, volunteering, or involvement with clubs and societies.”
Smillie also shared that the 2025 Future of Jobs report outlined, “in-demand skills include analytical and creative thinking…curiosity, flexibility, motivation, active listening and self-awareness”. Consider choosing opportunities that support developing these skills.
Deavion says, “It’s not always possible at university to build skills or access careers services while balancing everything else”, and Smillie agrees. Stating that, “Students have busy lives – perhaps that is the biggest barrier?”
Students and graduates alike find it difficult to remain optimistic about their futures. But Deavion says, “The only difference between a job and a career is that a career is something you care about enough to progress in…my own personal projects have kept my motivation and spark for the creative industry alive”.
As competition and the job-hunting process grow for early-career graduates, so does the use of AI. Smillie explains that, “Employers are seeing a lot of AI-based applications and finding that graduates aren’t always able to back up their claims in an interview situation”.
A call to think about how we can leverage our passions and experiences, formal or informal, to differentiate ourselves, like Deavion. Rather than submitting the same AI-generated application as hundreds of others, show how you bring unique value to a business or role.
Pete Smillie reminds us, “It can be hard to get an accurate sense of what is happening in the world of work - It’s good to try to go beyond media headlines and look at key trends to find accurate data”.
“Being prepared to keep learning, adapting your thinking and responding to new challenges will help graduates thrive and be ready for new job opportunities which emerge as the nature of work changes.”
So no.
All hope isn’t lost for those who chose university. But we should all rethink how we’re approaching this new career landscape, if we want to succeed in 2026 and beyond.
For all things careers, please find Pete Smillie’s resources below:
Oxford Brookes LinkedIn Page - Alumni outcomes.
Prospects and Target Jobs - job sectors, roles and vacancy sources.
Oxford Brookes Volunteer Coordinator - access 250+ volunteering opportunities.
Oxford Brookes Finalists Guide and Graduates Guide - application resources Oxford Brookes Interview 360 - interview support
“We want to get the word out to our students and recent graduates that our help is available for every Brookes student up to three years after they graduate.”
Email the Brookes career team here.