Oxford. Photo: Nils Linder/Unsplash
Recorded robbery offences in Thames Valley increased by 28.4%, from 1,737 in the year ending August 2024 to 2,231 in the year ending August 2026.
The findings come from an analysis of Thames Valley Police’s monthly street-level crime data published on data.police.uk.
Analysis of the three annual periods from September 2023 to August 2026 shows that recorded robbery offences increased in both year-on-year comparisons. The total reached 1,970 in the year ending August 2025, a 13.4% rise from the previous year. It rose by a further 13.2% to 2,231 in the year ending August 2026.
Source: Thames Valley Police monthly street-level crime data, published on data.police.uk. Analysis and chart: Toby Ludbrook.
The rise contrasts with a 2.1% decrease in the combined total of recorded offences across the dataset between the first and final periods, excluding anti-social behaviour incidents (anti-social behaviour is recorded as incidents rather than offences in this dataset, so it has been excluded from the recorded crime total). Robbery wasn’t the only category to rise. Recorded drug offences rose by 23% over the same period, but robbery had the largest percentage increase among the crime categories analysed.
In the data analysed over the three-year period, the total amount of recorded offences, excluding anti-social behaviour, was 179,847 in the year ending August 2024, 175,583 in 2025 and 176,124 in 2026. In the latest period the total rose by 0.3% from the previous year.
The analysis compares three equal September–August periods using 36 months of published data. These figures are offence counts rather than population-adjusted rates.
In Oxford, which falls within the Thames Valley policing area, Oxford Brookes student Tommy Forrest feels safe in the city but takes precautions against phone theft. ‘I feel very safe in Oxford,’ he said, but he explained that seeing videos of phone snatching online made him change how he carries his phone whilst running. ‘I have started wearing a running strap to keep my phone safe and stop it from getting snatched.’
Asked about the increase in recorded robberies across Thames Valley, Forrest said: ‘It seems like quite a big spike, and I would be worried if it keeps growing that quickly.’
He also called for greater public awareness: ‘I think police should tell people to be more alert and take precautions like not having noise cancelling on headphones on in areas that aren’t well lit and put posters up.’
Forrest’s concerns relate specifically to phone theft, while the dataset covers recorded robbery against both individuals and businesses. The monthly data used in this analysis doesn’t distinguish between the two, so it can’t establish if either contributed more to the increase. These figures count offences recorded by the police rather than every robbery that occurred.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) provides further context in its report titled: ‘Crime in England and Wales: year ending June 2026.’ ONS says an April 2025 clarification of Home Office recording rules contributed to a national increase in recorded business robberies. The ONS report shows recorded personal robbery falling by 7% and business robbery rising by 67% across England and Wales in the year ending June 2026.
The clarification stated that ‘if an offender enters a retail premises, steals, and either uses or threatens violence against a shop worker, or security guard, or any other person at the time, or uses or threatens violence to escape, then an offence of robbery of business property should be recorded.’ This analysis can’t establish whether, or to what extent, the clarification affected the Thames Valley figures.
The figures show recorded robberies increasing in both annual comparisons but identifying whether personal or business robbery drove this increase more would help explain what the trend means for people living across Thames Valley.
Forrest’s comments show one resident’s response to the wider figures rather than a trend in opinion across Oxford. The data doesn’t establish whether every part of Thames Valley experienced the same rise, but what can be established is that the rise in recorded robbery offences is a concerning fact.