Professor Michael Lister is a professor of politics at Oxford Brookes University, teaching US politics and has researched security policies, terrorism and counter terrorism.
After Trump promised to lower costs, keep inflation low and not start another war in 2024, his unfulfilled promises led 59 per cent of Americans to disapprove of how he is doing his job, according to The New York Times.
Prof Lister said: “I don’t think the results of the midterm elections were unexpected, looking at inflation and the unpopularity of the war in Iran.”
The professor added that “Trump is not a popular president, with bad ratings and low level of support. At the same time, you normally get a midterm swing in US politics.”
It is unusual for a president to become more popular in the last two years as president, according to Lister.
With that said, he also states that there exists an element of surprise in how many of the seats the Democrats actually won, for instance in Texas.
Democrat Scott Colom who won the seat, became the first black senator since 1881 in Mississippi. However Lister said that a Democrat winning the senate seat in Mississippi, was something predictable.
Lister asks if there is a danger of over-interpreting the results and questions “whether the results were due to turnout or persuasion?”
Both of these happened during the Midterm election, according to Lister. One group that moved drastically to the Democratic side were the Hispanic Americans with almost 30 points compared to the 2024 election.
That does not necessarily mean it will look the same in the 2028 election, Lister says.
“Things seem to be more volatile, and it is hard to predict what will happen in the next two years, other than there probably will be a lot of disagreement”.
Lister explains that the outcome of the midterms will affect Europe.
“I believe a lot of European leaders will be happy to see the back of Trump, and that they will be more Ukraine-friendly and perhaps more friendly towards Europe, although it is hard to predict on concrerte policies”.
With the information the public has today, Lister believes it is unlikely to see an impeachment of Trump. “I don’t think the Democrats will choose to use their political time in that way, and there won’t be enough votes to get him”.
“Hegseth, on the other hand, if he is still imposed in January, would be more likely”.
Other changes have already been made by Trump after the election. Stephen Miller is taking on the role as Chief of Staff after Susie Wiles.
Lister says “Miller is a real hard liner.
“Choosing him sends a message on what Trump is going to do the next two years, which will include a lot of executive actions and orders”.
What will happen to immigration and ICE, Lister is not too sure about. He is also clear on the fact that Trump is not up for re-election in 2028.
Lister states that although there could exist a ripple effect into UK politics, it will be hard to see direct effects.
“It will be interesting to see if people believe the Trump era is ending, and how this will affect the Reform party which is closest to the Trump-project in the UK”.
Towards 2028 questions are raised on whether Republicans will keep going with their Trump-Vance project, or begin turning the page to something different.
Lister says it will be interesting to follow the US further and adds that “If the democrats can win Texas in the presidential election, which is a very big ‘if’, then it makes the whole electoral board collect game completely different”.