Why does my food shop keep getting more expensive?
If annual food price inflation has eased, why are we still paying more?
Since 2022, food prices in the UK have outstripped headline inflation dramatically. As of January 2026, the annual rate of food price inflation in the UK was 3.6%, easing from the 4.5% increase for food and drink recorded in December 2025.
So what does this mean for our weekly shop and the future of food?
Increases in these costs have been uneven amongst foods, with names such as ‘choc’ and ‘cheese-flation’ appearing in headlines. Indeed, chocolate has experienced the most significant rise out of all foods over the past few years, and with Easter approaching, it is definitely a cause for concern!
By September 2025, chocolate prices had risen by a staggering 15% (compared to the 5.6% of other supermarket foods), and many people noticed shrinkage in chocolate sizes. This is due to extreme weather conditions in West Africa, especially Ghana and the Ivory Coast (which together supply around 70% of cocoa beans). This shift in weather has harmed harvests, and is making chocolate and other foods become even more valuable treats . . . literally.
Although prices like this have increased, chocolate has not been the primary driver of food inflation in the UK, as it makes up a low percentage of household spending. The products that do push inflation are those with high spending rates and high price increases, such as meat, which rose to 5.7% in 2025, accounting for £24 billion of household expenditures each year.
Red meat has been hit the hardest in particular, with the cost gap between a kilogram of beef compared to fresh pulses increasing from £6.58 in 2020 to £10.54 last December, according to Greenqueen.com.
This means that there has been more financial influence to buy tofu, beans and meat alternatives that are cheaper than animal proteins. This is evident in the disruption of sales by a decrease of 40 tonnes of meat sold, in comparison to pre-pandemic levels, says economicsobservatory.com.
Two policy changes, an increase in national insurance contributions (NIC’s) and the minimum wage, have also been blamed for rocketing food prices. In 2025, employer NIC’s increased from 13.5% to 15% of pay, while paying contributions fell from £9,100 to £5000 per employee annually, meaning that higher operating and production costs must be compensated for.
At the same time, in 2025, the government increased the minimum wage from £11.44 to £12.21 an hour for employees over 21 (which is expected to increase to £12.71 in 2026), with larger percentage rises for younger workers. This means that with more money to spend, market prices must correspondingly increase as well, leading to inflation. So while prices may not be as high as they were last summer, 2026 still brings higher expenditures on food.
Over time, these prices (such as for meat and chocolate) will correct themselves. Although they may remain elevated now, previous patterns, such as when prices in olive oil increased dramatically, did eventually stabilise. For example, between 2019 and 2024, olive oil saw the largest rise in price over any other food item. But since then, prices have begun to decline as the Spanish harvests have begun to recover.
These environmental effects will continue to cause shock throughout the years, with unpredictable weather negatively impacting rates of production, meaning that future food prices may continue to carry more volatility.
Rather than trying to time the market, controlling our spending can be done through budgeting and strategic, long-term planning for events and holidays, in order to avoid reactive decisions when consuming ‘needs’ over ‘wants.’